This infographic comes to us from Raconteur, and helps visualize anticipated growth in the EV market – a segment that readers know sits at 1-2% of total vehicle sales currently. However, using projections from Morgan Stanley, it shows that sales are expected to surpass those of traditional vehicles by 2038, while the global fleet of EVs is expected to surpass one billion by 2047.
Meanwhile, the transition to electric will be a game-changer for carmakers. I have chronicled that extensively for Future Fuel Outlook members. My latest analysis shows that automakers are planning to spend over US$200 billion in the next few years alone to commercialize EVs.
Morgan Stanley’s analysis sees the average profitability of combustion engine models falling through the early 2020s, eventually turning to a loss per unit by 2028. On the flipside, they say negative profit margins for electric vehicles will peak in 2023 as production continues to ramp, and EV making will switch to a profitable business by 2029.