ICCT’s Vision 2050: “Ambitious Yet Feasible”

09.30.20 | Blog | By:

There have been many announcements this month related to decarbonizing transport, so many, in fact that it is hard to keep track of what appears to be a fast-moving space. Putting together the Top 5 later this month should be interesting! Consider the following:

  • California Governor Gavin Newsom announced an executive order to ban the sale of gasoline ICEVs by 2035. Meantime, the UK brought forward its ban timeline another five years to 2030 (it originally started with 2040).
  • Walmart has pledged to electrify its entire fleet by 2040.
  • The German government has proposed a specific mandate for biojet. (The EU is considering the same.)
  • Tesla estimated in its battery day that its battery costs would drop by half in the next three years.
  • China has pledged climate neutrality by 2060.

That’s the short list and most of that has happened in the last two weeks. However, I wanted to call your attention to something else that happened recently, perhaps overshadowed by so many breaking developments, and that’s the release of the International Council on Clean Transportation’s Vision 2050. ICCT has been and, it’s clear in this document will continue to be, a major change agent for transport decarbonization globally. ICCT will use the results of the analysis presented in this document to guide its strategic approach to electric and conventional vehicles over the next five years, which should be of great importance to anyone involved in the fuels and vehicles industries globally.

ICCT developed an “ambitious yet feasible” scenario with a number of underlying assumptions for transport and relies on successful deployment of four key types of policy:

  • Efficiency standards mandating that manufacturers achieve a certain CO2 emission or fuel efficiency target in new vehicles. ICCT assumes that the real-world CO2 emissions of new ICE light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) improve at an average annual rate of 2% over the next 30 years. And interestingly, its model suggests that even if its EV sales targets were met, there would still be more than 2 billion ICEV passenger vehicles sold in global markets from 2020 to 2050.
  • Zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates that require manufacturers to achieve a certain fraction of zero emissions vehicles in their total annual sales volume. ICCT assumes 95% electrification of the total stock of two-wheel and three-wheel vehicles worldwide by 2050, and nearly 90% penetration of ZEVs in the EU and China passenger vehicle fleets. For the rest of the global market, including the U.S., it assumed a lower but still significant 66% electric share of the total vehicle stock by 2050. These reflect a further assumption that EVs will make up 22% of total global LDV sales by 2025 and 35% by 2030. For HDVs, ICCT estimates that by 2050 electric buses will be 81% of the global bus stock (93% of new bus sales); electric light heavy-duty trucks (LHDT) (such as those used for local delivery) will make up 69% of the global stock (87% of new LHDT sales); electric medium heavy-duty trucks (such as those used for regional delivery) will be 42% of the global stock (60% of new MHDT sales); and electric heavy heavy-duty trucks (such as those used for long haul trucking) will be 29% of the global stock (44% of new HHDT sales).
  • Emissions standards mandating that manufacturers meet certain emissions limits for specific pollutants, such as particulate matter or nitrogen oxides, in new vehicles. For black carbon, ICCT notes that if every , if every country in the world adopted and implemented diesel particular filter (DPF)-forcing Euro 6/VI-equivalent standards by 2025, these policies would reduce global black carbon emissions from on-road diesel vehicles by 740,000 metric tons per year in 2050.
  • Renewable fuels standards requiring fuel suppliers to include a certain content of renewable fuels in the fuel mix they sell. ICCT’s analysis assumes that of the 15.5 million barrels per day (mbd) equivalent of sustainable biofuel projected to be used in transportation in 2050, 79% will be used in on-road, 7% in marine, and 14% in aviation applications. But it’s not 1G. “Our assessment does not include biofuel potential from traditional food and feed crops, because of the significant indirect land-use change (ILUC) emissions associated with these feedstocks.”

A summary of ICCT’s ambitious yet feasible scenario is shown in the figure below.

Source: ICCT, September 2020

So, what’s ICCT’s strategy moving forward? It will focus on the following areas, bound to touch upon what you’re working on or will be working on in the coming years:

  • Supporting an increase in sales fraction of electric vehicles, starting with the most attractive and important applications such as passenger vehicles, 2- and 3-wheelers, and urban buses
  • Ensuring progress on energy efficiency for ICEVs.
  • Seeking black carbon emission reductions through through the introduction of world-class standards for vehicles and fuels in as many markets as possible by 2025. As an interim milestone, ICCT is working to support such standards for vehicles and fuels for on-road vehicles in the G20 countries and in Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America.
  • Supporting R&D for sectors such as marine and aviation to develop and deploy zero emission technologies.
  • Focusing on emerging markets, including China and India.
  • Continuing to support city efforts to decarbonize transport and reduce vehicle-related emissions.
  • Fostering communication and collaboration.
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